martedì 8 dicembre 2009

Demise of the Dollar? Now?

It's been a while since I last posted anything and for that I apologize but I've been in the middle of some major committments and I couldn't postpone them.
Anyhow, I want to make this blog brief and concise.
Where are the world economies going now? We've had the biggest rally in economic history (bear market rally I mean) and we might still well be in the middle of it (the markets don't listen to me....only to themselves). I doubt that this uptrend in all markets will continue that much more. Actually I am quite convinced now that a new nasty downleg might be at the horizon. It all depends on how "they" want to report facts and not fiction.
Over the past months we've heard a handful of nonsense and bogus economic reports on how well and improving all is.
To my total disgust, last week we touched the bottom when economists who report unemployment had missed their target by over 90%. How can that be? I'll tell you how it can be when you have Bernanke looking forward in being reconfirmed and the markets at major crossroads in technical analysis.
Nevertheless, the markets disappointed Washington and did not outperform with those lies.
I guess not all traders are stupid, eh?

The title of this blog tells us that while not even 2 months ago everybody was predicting the end of the usd as we know it and would have signed the beginning of the end of the American Economy.
Now, just after a few days of dollar upswings, might we have seen a yearly low on the USD?
Well, if you check out how bearish the market sentiment has been on the dollar lately I'd have to agree with Robert Prechter who is BIG TIME BULLISH on the dollar now and BIG TIME BEARISH on the markets.
We hit a major resistance line several times on the SPX and failed once again to go north (it has been since late 2007 that is hasn't been broken through). Check it out here below

SP 500 INDEX










Now, check out the USD index and tell me that we're not into some kind of breakout after the recent bottoms.

USD INDEX













To you the final decision to where the markets might be headed soon. But be very careful if your intention is to buy the dips in this case.....it could hurt!

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