mercoledì 16 settembre 2009

Recession Over. Follow The Cattle

Hi there,

It's me!
It's been a while since I last wrote here.

Oh well.....I've been here all the time though. Reading away...

My question now is: what the heck is goin on?

Over the past 3 months we've been told that we're gettin outta the woods. First it was Dennis Kneale (oh boy!), then came Larry Kudlow, all the boys at CNBC then we got Meredith Whitney upgrading companies such as Goldman Sachs (oh....and by the way...that upgrade came in on a day that the sp500 was basically at a huge potential turning point...no other news than her's came out and the market rallied). Of course if it wasn't for her, most probably some other "paid" pundit would have blown out some other good news to prop things up.

Ok, so at the beginning of March we were on the verge of economic meltdown, in all terms. Nouriel Roubini (the doomer of them all) was quite negative and couldn't see any recovery anytime in 2009. Actually his forecast was 2011/2012 to get out of the woods. And the recovery would have been an L shaped one (apparently now for some reason he changed his mind...not aV shaped as all are expecting but a Ushaped).
Everybody was asking around. Should I short the market. Should I stay out. Should I go look for another job. Are we going to get hyperinflation with all the money poured on the economies all over the world.
In other words we were all pretty much devastated.
Then what? Oh......on march 9th "someone" decided that it was time to invert things. Someone was told that there was no chance at all that the markets could fall lower.
Someone was told that the BAC's the Citigroups, the AIG's ......basically all the bailed out fellows had hit rock bottom and from then on....it was all good.
Someone was told that this was the chance of a LIFETIME.
Now.....let me see here.....
What really happened to justify this massive rally up to today mid september?
Could it have been GDP? Could it have been Unemployment? Could it have been Consumer credit? Or Residential and...Commercial real-estate?
Oh......the USD????? As I speak by the way...we're getting close to 76 (last time it was sept. 22nd '08).
Bernanke and his fellows are screaming to the world that it's all over now?
Investors can be confident once again that the storm is over and put their money at work?

Sometimes, I really think that people don't use their brains. They just do things.....because someone tells them to. And because it's easier or should I say it's a no-brainer demanding to follow the stream. Just like cattle. Ya.....men mostly react nothing more than like cattle.....Or that's what mainstream media wants them to be.
Thank goodness that Internet as of today.....still exsists so we can pass on our message....just like mine here now.....about what is going on.
Last night I saw an Italian tv show here in Canada (it's been a while since I last heard from Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi). The only news that we've been receiving from Italy was the whores, prostitutes, private parties, the scandals, the divorces of the most powerful man in Italy.
But last nite I had a chance to hear him in a long interview with Bruno Vespa about the economic crisis and how the US got the whole world out of it.
He said...thanks to all worldwide government interventions (by literally injecting billions of dollars, euros, Yens, Renminbis...whatever) into the economies,over 400 major worldwide banks had been saved.
He went talking about unemployment (which admittedly is still on the rise), but getting "less worse", that the Italian GDP is now growing way better than fellow European Economies. Whatever.
As of today there are increasing public manifestations throughtout the main squares of Italy demonstrating against this unbelievable, or should I say disgusting manipulation that is taking place.
Consumers are not spending. AT ALL! Berlusconi said it too. But he said that consumers are not spending because they are still afraid of a new shock that could hit the markets. And therefore consumers are saving rather than spending. Even though the consumer has more money now since prices have gone down.
He said that banks are still a little tight on credit.....and that he's doing all he can to help the small/medium sized realities out there....that are in desperate need of cash to survive.
But the end line? ALL IS GOOD.

In other words......it really felt to me like listening to Obama, to Geithner, to Bernanke.....
Could it be that those G20's.....G8's.....bildenberg meetings.....they were all setups for one massive mission?
Oh well.....better not go there....but.....
it does seem to me.....call me stupid.......that maybe not today, or tomorrow, or next week, month,....but soon....we're gonna see some weird things happening.
this is not a same 'ol same 'ol warning post that i'm doin.
I just hope that.....we all spread the word...and really open our eyes....and figure out.....where will we be in 1,2,5 years from now. Wherever we might be located in this world...
Go to your local bookstore for example.
When the crisis hit the fan exactly one year ago....in not more than 2/3 months we had tons of books out there explaining what happened....real estate and therefore financial meltdowns and so on.
Last march the markets rebounded violently and ever since....it's been a ride to the sky.
Why is it that there's not ONE book out there that says.....how the US saved the world or how printing money saves economies.
Could it be that all economic books that are history and as we know ..history always repeats itself....one day will have to be rewritten?
The Adam Smiths, the John Mynard Keynes, the John Kenneth Galbraith (author of the great crash of 1929).....are their books goin to be forgotten? Will people laugh at their theories in the near future?
I personally don't think so.....and neither does Bernanke and his fellowship. They KNOW what they're doing. They can't tell the truth. If they do......oh boy....

So people....stay alert....I have to repeat here what I've stated in the past. DON'T LISTEN BLINDLY.
If the worst is really over.....that means I'm a nutcase.....and all I've studied was total BS.....and that I'd be better off flying a kite.......
Actually you know what?...I think I WILL go fly a kite today....since it's still beautiful out there..because the ... so called... dark clouds....are not here yet.

Ciao

Itmse

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