Friday Feb 5th 2010, 2pm on spot. MARKET REVERSAL! A MIRACLE?

For those who trade or for those who simply follow the stock market for pleasure, curiosity or whatever reason, today I've seen the same 'ol thing happening AGAIN!
After the sell-off we've experienced yesterday, I was starting to think that LEG DOWN N°2 was on its way.
But today, after the market started it's steady descent after 10am, at exactly 2pm est I've noticed a sudden bump up which was not showing any weakness at all.
Now, this is NOT the investor putting his money back into the markets. What is it then?
Take a wild guess...

There are so many issues that are deeply concerning investors. At home and overseas.

It just remains astonishing how things like what happened today just pass as market confidence coming back and all is good. Buying opportunities in this little pullback.
Well, maybe. Time will tell.

But one thing I can guarantee... we are not in a bull market.

THIS IS PLAIN FANTASY CAMP.

And to all the Americans out there, the markets want you to enjoy a weekend in serenity and relaxation in front of the TV watching the Superbowl not worrying about what might happen next week.

Cheers

M

Listen to TV and put your money where they tell you

I've had it now.
All I hear on tv is BS.....over BS......plus a nice dose of BS!

How come they don't comment on these issues for example?

Geithner and Bernanke: Laundering Money Through an Illegal Trust?

The Bull run is over?

First question should be: what bull run? Have we seriously had a bull run since March '09 to early January '10? Or was it all just pure manipulation led by the Fed's printing press running 24-7?
Has the economy "seriously improved" since march '09? Do people actually remember what the entire world was facing at the beginning of '09? It all looked like the world as we knew was coming to an end.
All of a sudden on March 9th, 2009 is became all good. Just like that!
Fantasy camp is something that only Cosmo Kramer lives in! Wake up folks and smell the coffee.

Now, having said that, I am not here to confirm that the stock market is going to start its next down leg....yet. But one thing I am quite sure of.....it's going to happen.
When? That I don't know, and nobody around does either.
It all depends on when the true s#]it will hit the fan and trigger the mother of all downlegs!

We may see new highs from here, for what I know. And to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised too.
This morning Obama came out with his new spending budget for 2010. A whopping $3.8 trillion!!!!
Ya, you heard that right. 3.8......TRILLION!
Now, for those of you that are good with numbers, you certainly don't need any explanation. For those instead that watch CNBC, Bloomberg TV....or Oprah.....then you better wake up and start saving whatever you have left since soon enough there are going to be some changes that you weren't aware of.
Tax cuts? I DON'T THINK SO.
But Obama said he's not going to tax more!!!! Ya, ok.......keep on dreaming.
When prices of goods start raising 5-10% per year/quarter/month...who know where they can go.....then you'll realize that whatever this Administration is doing......is DEAD WRONG!

Don't say I haven't warned ya.

Cheerz

M

2010 May Be A Year To Remember?

We're there. January 2010 is here and whatever the Bears may say, so far they're still in pain.
Being short this market since last April/May (sell in May and go away!) must be so painful since the chance of a lifetime was (or still is???) right among us all. Right in our face!

Now what?
Is it too late to ride the Bull wagon to 1500 or is it time to short it back down to 666 and under?
Nobody knows that for a fact!
MSM has been cheering since April that the recession was over. The eternal Permabear Economists have been shouting to be careful and not fall for this sucker rally.
Well, you can't always be right.

All I can say here is to NOT LISTEN TO ANYBODY BUT YOURSELF.
Forget about the financial advisors/brokers. They are human beings just like yourself and in this totally manipulated stock market you're better off taking your own calls.

There are signals out there (not so clear) that show that the major investors (those who carry the biggest cake) are still waiting for confirmations about where to go (sell or buy). So far they are still on the sidelines with their major slices. Sure, they might have missed an unrepeatable rally of a lifetime, but remember in March '09 the whole world was crumbling down.
Now, after $$ billions of patches here and there it seems that the bull stopped bleeding for a bit. But how to cure cancer? Advil and Tylenol?

My deepest advice now is to embrace whatever cash you have and remember that it might be gone in hours (not to say minutes) if some truth hits the MSM.
Therefore, if you're a day trader, stare at your position non stop. If long term investor and already invested then......watch some Football or Sitcom and don't worry about your long term investments. In 10-15 years you should be fine hopefully.
If you are out of the market and want to get in now.......oh well.......as I said.....If you feel it in you and are brave enough.....go for it. But it has to be on your own advice.....NOBODY ELSE'S.

Itsme

FOMC release. They got to be kidding!

Hello folks,

Just as we were expecting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this afternoon, the markets didn't really jump out in joy. Probably the earlier rally had already priced in the expected news and then rapidly sold off to regain part of the losses occurred after 2:30pm.

But what I want to show is what exactly the FOMC reported and how dodgy their reports have become for a while now.
Here are some highlights reported on Bloomberg about their report:

Highlights
The Fed kept policy rates unchanged with the fed funds target rate at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. The Fed kept its language for keeping the target low for some time. The FOMC meeting statement also gave a modest upgrade on the economy.

"The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

It was not dramatic, but the Fed again has upgraded its view of the economy-notably that the labor market is not worsening as much as it has. The Fed expects economic activity to remain weak "for a time."

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating."

"Nonetheless, the Fed sees the economy as weak, though growing. Housing is expanding at a moderate rate but is constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit."

"Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability."

Despite market concerns about this week's PPI report, the Fed only minimally addressed inflation concerns, leaving commentary little changed from the last FOMC.

"With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."

Apparently, the Fed sees the latest inflation numbers as blips-especially since the core CPI for November came in flat-though the Fed offered no comments on this. The FOMC would have reviewed this morning's CPI report prior to voting on the statement.

The FOMC did not change its plans for ending its balance sheet expansion by the end of the first quarter of 2010. But it did remind markets of the existing plan.

"To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010."

Overall, the Fed has left monetary policy unchanged. Balance sheet expansion ends by the first quarter of 2010. The remaining question is when the unwinding begins. The Fed has not addressed that question officially outside of the language that the fed funds rate will remain low for an extended period. But the balance sheet could and likely will start shrinking sooner.


NOW THAT YOU READ THE ABOVE, I EMBOSSED WHERE THE FOMC IS BEING RIDICULOUSLY DODGY.
AND IN RED WHERE THEY TRULY WILL NEVER TELL THE AMERICAN HOW BAD THE SITUATION REALLY IS.
MY GUESS IS THAT EVEN ONCE THE SHOCKING EVIDENCE ON HOW HIGH INFLATION IS GOING TO STRIKE, ON HOW MANY MORE UNEMPLOYED WILL JOIN THE PARTY OF NON REPORTED AND WHEN THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BUBBLE TOGETHER WITH ALL THE RUBBISH THAT THE TOO BIG TO FAIL BANKS ARE HIDING UNDER THE RUG COMES OUT......OH WELL.....LET'S JUST SAY THAT TODAY IS A NICE DAY.....BEN BERNANKE PERSON OF THE YEAR (TIME MAGAZINE).

WHATEVER..

Demise of the Dollar? Now?

It's been a while since I last posted anything and for that I apologize but I've been in the middle of some major committments and I couldn't postpone them.
Anyhow, I want to make this blog brief and concise.
Where are the world economies going now? We've had the biggest rally in economic history (bear market rally I mean) and we might still well be in the middle of it (the markets don't listen to me....only to themselves). I doubt that this uptrend in all markets will continue that much more. Actually I am quite convinced now that a new nasty downleg might be at the horizon. It all depends on how "they" want to report facts and not fiction.
Over the past months we've heard a handful of nonsense and bogus economic reports on how well and improving all is.
To my total disgust, last week we touched the bottom when economists who report unemployment had missed their target by over 90%. How can that be? I'll tell you how it can be when you have Bernanke looking forward in being reconfirmed and the markets at major crossroads in technical analysis.
Nevertheless, the markets disappointed Washington and did not outperform with those lies.
I guess not all traders are stupid, eh?

The title of this blog tells us that while not even 2 months ago everybody was predicting the end of the usd as we know it and would have signed the beginning of the end of the American Economy.
Now, just after a few days of dollar upswings, might we have seen a yearly low on the USD?
Well, if you check out how bearish the market sentiment has been on the dollar lately I'd have to agree with Robert Prechter who is BIG TIME BULLISH on the dollar now and BIG TIME BEARISH on the markets.
We hit a major resistance line several times on the SPX and failed once again to go north (it has been since late 2007 that is hasn't been broken through). Check it out here below

SP 500 INDEX










Now, check out the USD index and tell me that we're not into some kind of breakout after the recent bottoms.

USD INDEX













To you the final decision to where the markets might be headed soon. But be very careful if your intention is to buy the dips in this case.....it could hurt!

The Feds....what next?

So here we are in late September 2009 with the whole World that seems to be out of the ugly woods of depression. Actually out of recession as well. So says mainstream media.

Now, needless to say that all this hype is extremely overrated, it just looks like right now that we might be headed towards some weird events in the near future.
The Federal Reserve is going to be audited? Will the big guys at Washington allow this to happen?
Ben Bernanke had spoken quite frankly a couple of months ago, under Oath at Congress, stating that Politics should never interfere with Economics and with whom is doing all to save the World! Printing money and ingulfing the press machines apparently is their way to save the World.
Let’s just leave the Feds continue in their masterpiece of changing the World once and for all????
That is what they are doing and they are trying to show us the other side of the coin.
People, you must read between the lines, watch carefully what is shown on tv and realize that everything is changing right before our eyes.
Not even 2 months ago Bernanke (still under Oath) stated that the Federal Reserve was by all means not intentioned to monetize the US debt. And that their purchase of US bonds would have ended this coming October 2009.
Just yesterday at the FMOC meeting they obviously extended their purchasing to March 2010 and at that date (unless some strange events happen in the meantime) they will surely extend their buying even more.
What are they trying to pull? Nothing really. Just that no other buyer is out there for Government bonds, so the Feds are there just hoping to that someday someone else will step in and start believing in the United States of America.

Now we have the FDIC, the Federal Dept. Insurance Company that is literally broke.
Today Georgian Bank went belly up and it shall cost the FDIC almost 1billion dollars. We are getting at 100 banks failed in 2009. Recovery.....ya!
Rumours are now that the FDIC might be looking for borrowing funds from the Big Banks instead of trying to get baled out from the good ‘ol taxpayer.
Who do you think will step in and save the FDIC? Take a nice wild guess.
If I were to gamble on this event I would definitely put all my bets on Goldman Sachs. My thought are that they already started in the past days or weeks to unload their current holdings in stocks since they have already made their big gains in the biggest short-term rally of the Century. Now they might be in need of some cash so......what better time than now to unload and let the market crash or let’s say...help it crash.
Time will tell.....

Good luck everyone.

Itsme